Betting Lines
| Spread | SUU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | SUU -163 SFA +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +9 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | SUU -5.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.9 (-37.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -4.6 (+4.4) | 153.1 (-28.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -3.1 (+5.9) | 149.2 (-24.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -4.3 (+4.7) | 151.4 (-26.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -5.0 (+4.0) | 154.6 (-29.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2024 | SFA 87 – 60 SUU |
| Jan 14, 2024 | SFA 84 – 82 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#116) | 1.9 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#109) | 0.56 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#112) | 0.49 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#100) | 0.513 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 25.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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