Murray State
Racers
49
–
66
FINAL
Neutral
Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic
Nebraska
Cornhuskers
Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MUR +320 NEB -425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +17 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | NEB -6.2 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -6.1 (-10.9) | 140.0 (-25.0) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -7.1 (-9.9) | 141.5 (-26.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -6.3 (-10.7) | 143.6 (-28.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -5.6 (-11.4) | 143.9 (-28.9) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#114) | 9.3 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#162) | 2.21 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#135) | 3.19 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#159) | 0.611 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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