Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -26.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TENN -20000 MTSU +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +18 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -26.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -21.3 (-3.3) | 139.0 (+7.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -23.6 (-5.6) | 139.0 (+7.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -25.2 (-7.2) | 139.0 (+7.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -24.3 (-6.3) | 140.4 (+5.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.1 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 24.1 (#3) | 2.3 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.75 (#1) | 0.89 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.66 (#1) | 0.79 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#18) | 0.564 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.0% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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