Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | DAV -1400 EMU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +22 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -15.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -13.9 (+8.1) | 146.4 (+3.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -14.1 (+7.9) | 145.8 (+4.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -14.6 (+7.4) | 144.6 (+5.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -14.1 (+7.9) | 146.7 (+3.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#108) | -8.0 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#100) | -0.29 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#90) | -0.90 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#125) | 0.469 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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