Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | USD +1200 GCU -3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +13 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -10.7 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (-23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -9.6 (-3.4) | 140.5 (-17.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -10.7 (-2.3) | 141.1 (-18.1) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -9.8 (-3.2) | 143.1 (-20.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -9.5 (-3.5) | 141.3 (-18.3) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-27 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 13-3 |
| Home | 5-13 | 16-1 |
| Away | 0-12 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 70.0 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#317) | 1.3 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.72 (#342) | 0.93 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.83 (#334) | 0.93 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.366 (#352) | 0.556 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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