Betting Lines
| Spread | OSU -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | OSU -5000 INST +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +20 | 186 | Won |
| Massey | OSU -22.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.8 (+23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OSU -19.7 (+0.3) | 159.3 (+26.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OSU -15.6 (+4.4) | 161.6 (+24.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OSU -22.7 (-2.7) | 157.3 (+28.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OSU -22.3 (-2.3) | 158.1 (+27.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 81.5 |
| Massey | 16.2 (#22) | -1.5 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#49) | -0.22 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#35) | -0.56 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#39) | 0.465 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 59.1% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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