Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UCR -130 STMN +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +2 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -2.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (+9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -0.4 (+2.4) | 147.4 (+12.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -0.1 (+2.1) | 147.1 (+12.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -0.7 (+2.7) | 148.5 (+11.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -0.3 (+1.7) | 147.7 (+12.3) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | STMN 92 – 78 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-4 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-0 |
| Away | 7-11 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#176) | 5.1 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#90) | 0.74 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#134) | 1.11 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#92) | 0.518 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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