Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -32.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +42 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -32.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (+29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -23.6 (+18.4) | 153.7 (+28.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -25.1 (+16.9) | 158.4 (+23.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -30.5 (+11.5) | 153.5 (+28.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -28.8 (+13.2) | 155.4 (+26.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-10 |
| Home | 12-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 2-8 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.5 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#42) | -15.3 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#45) | -4.09 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.36 (#38) | -5.48 (#363) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#62) | 0.355 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.91 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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