Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -800 UTAH +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +25 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -10.3 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.3 (-25.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -10.5 (+14.5) | 155.4 (-18.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -10.8 (+14.2) | 153.1 (-16.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -10.2 (+14.8) | 156.4 (-19.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -9.8 (+15.2) | 155.6 (-18.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BAY 101 – 75 UTAH |
| Jan 25, 2025 | BAY 76 – 61 UTAH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#19) | 11.0 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#31) | 0.76 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#41) | 1.27 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#28) | 0.480 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 41.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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