Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +3 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -6.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -7.8 (-10.8) | 141.0 (+12.0) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -11.4 (-14.4) | 139.5 (+13.5) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -8.9 (-11.9) | 135.9 (+17.1) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | JOES 76 – 65 DREX |
| Dec 17, 2020 | DREX 81 – 77 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 15-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 8-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#233) | 0.5 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#139) | -0.44 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#148) | -0.59 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#272) | 0.500 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.8% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 30.4% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 13.7% | 11.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.0% | 63.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 80.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 13.0% |
Game Analysis
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