Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Under |
| Money | AKR -140 APP +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +12 | 102 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -2.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -0.7 (-11.3) | 122.5 (-20.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -0.1 (-12.1) | 120.0 (-18.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -0.0 (-12.0) | 124.7 (-22.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -0.7 (-12.7) | 124.0 (-22.0) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.9 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#200) | -4.0 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#326) | -0.36 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.03 (#322) | 0.10 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#267) | 0.557 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 20.0% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.47 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.3% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 79.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 12.8% |
Game Analysis
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