Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -145 TENN +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +22 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -24.0 (-46.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -12.8 (-34.8) | 142.4 (-10.4) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -15.2 (-37.2) | 136.6 (-4.6) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2025 | TENN 83 – 62 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 9-2 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 63.1 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#17) | 3.0 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#89) | 1.01 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#61) | 1.62 (#30) |
| RPI | — | 0.750 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 49.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 4.20 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 6.6% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 26.0% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.4% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.6% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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