Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -8.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -7.6 (+3.4) | 141.8 (+11.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -8.9 (+2.1) | 141.6 (+11.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -7.7 (+3.3) | 141.0 (+12.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -8.4 (+2.6) | 139.9 (+13.1) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2024 | ECU 93 – 69 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#177) | -3.9 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#91) | -2.43 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#105) | -3.09 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#138) | 0.385 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 12.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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