Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +1 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -1.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -3.5 (-2.5) | 145.2 (+19.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -2.5 (-1.5) | 144.7 (+20.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -3.8 (-2.8) | 145.9 (+19.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -4.4 (-3.4) | 146.2 (+18.8) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2024 | ALA 85 – 80 HOU |
| Dec 10, 2022 | ALA 71 – 65 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 32-6 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 9-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 58.8 |
| Massey | 18.0 (#9) | 21.3 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#16) | 2.34 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.18 (#18) | 3.76 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.739 (#1) | 0.589 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 43.2 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 42.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 25.9% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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