Betting Lines
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | HOW +115 NCAT -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +22 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -1.7 (+20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -1.8 (+20.2) | 147.8 (-11.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -1.2 (+20.8) | 146.3 (-10.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -1.2 (+20.8) | 147.6 (-11.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -1.5 (+20.5) | 148.6 (-12.6) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | HOW 73 – 69 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#198) | -2.5 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#301) | -0.64 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#276) | -0.95 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.381 (#337) | 0.484 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.3% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 62.4% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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