Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
| Money | MIA -1100 STET +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -13.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -10.3 (-0.3) | 136.5 (+17.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -10.8 (-0.8) | 137.3 (+16.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -10.7 (-0.7) | 138.6 (+15.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -11.8 (-1.8) | 138.3 (+15.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2025 | MIA 102 – 61 STET |
| Dec 5, 2020 | MIA 82 – 60 STET |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#118) | -5.9 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#73) | -1.23 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#88) | -1.49 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#72) | 0.416 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 13.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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