Betting Lines
| Spread | MRMK -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 119.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRMK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +7 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | MRMK -4.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRMK -2.2 (-9.2) | 126.5 (-19.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRMK -2.6 (-9.6) | 123.3 (-16.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRMK -1.1 (-8.1) | 124.9 (-17.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -2.1 (-9.1) | 125.7 (-18.7) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | MRMK 87 – 70 MSM |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MRMK 75 – 65 MSM |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MSM 57 – 55 MRMK |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MSM 66 – 58 MRMK |
| Feb 4, 2022 | MSM 69 – 53 MRMK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRMK | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-7 |
| Away | 8-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.9 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 65.4 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#299) | -8.5 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#288) | -1.69 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#297) | -2.25 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#289) | 0.441 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRMK | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 26.3 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 62.3% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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