Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | NOLA +700 TROY -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +17 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | NOLA -16.1 (-33.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -3.5 (-20.5) | 148.4 (-9.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -2.0 (-19.0) | 148.1 (-9.1) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 13-5 |
| Home | 0-11 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-15 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.5 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#193) | -2.1 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#204) | 0.38 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#207) | 0.48 (#113) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 52.2% |
| 3PT% | 45.0% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 9.4% | 10.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 42.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 52.5% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.0% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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