Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -165 BUCK +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +10 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -1.4 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -1.4 (+8.6) | 136.4 (-10.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -1.2 (+8.8) | 138.0 (-12.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -1.3 (+8.7) | 136.6 (-10.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -0.8 (+9.2) | 137.2 (-11.2) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | AMER 75 – 57 BUCK |
| Feb 5, 2026 | BUCK 60 – 59 AMER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BUCK 71 – 49 AMER |
| Mar 8, 2024 | BUCK 80 – 57 AMER |
| Feb 3, 2024 | AMER 75 – 66 BUCK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#292) | -4.8 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#244) | -0.99 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#240) | -1.13 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#230) | 0.452 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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