Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -20000 STO +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +27 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -16.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -8.6 (+18.4) | 132.1 (-7.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -10.7 (+16.3) | 131.1 (-6.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2022 | PROV 100 – 76 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#223) | -4.2 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#107) | -0.38 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#132) | -0.55 (#214) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 30.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 23.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 40.2% |
| TOV% | 25.3% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 17.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 31.5% | 59.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.0% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.9% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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