Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | RICE +340 FSU -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +8 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -0.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -0.1 (-7.9) | 139.0 (-1.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -0.7 (-7.3) | 142.2 (-4.2) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICE | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-8 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#210) | -1.3 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#125) | 0.41 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#133) | 0.54 (#144) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICE | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 18.2% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 18.9% |
| FT Rate | 44.2% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.3% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 28.6% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 83.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 34.7% |
Game Analysis
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