Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -195 NU +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -5.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -4.4 (+0.6) | 140.4 (-3.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -6.7 (-1.7) | 136.3 (+0.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -6.4 (-1.4) | 138.8 (-1.8) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2023 | NU 71 – 66 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 16-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#72) | 12.1 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#141) | 0.40 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#131) | 0.64 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#76) | 0.500 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 54.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 45.0% |
| REB / G | 50.0 | 45.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.86 | 2.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 61.4% |
| TOV% | 10.0% | 11.8% |
| ORB% | 41.5% | 39.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 13.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 34.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 86.8% | 84.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.1% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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