Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -200 ARK +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -3.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -2.8 (+6.2) | 148.3 (-1.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -2.7 (+6.3) | 147.8 (-0.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -2.7 (+6.3) | 148.7 (-1.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -3.2 (+5.8) | 148.7 (-1.7) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2025 | DUKE 80 – 71 ARK |
| Nov 30, 2023 | ARK 80 – 75 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 17-1 |
| Away | 9-2 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#10) | 14.3 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#7) | 2.81 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.08 (#5) | 3.34 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#13) | 0.611 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.7% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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