Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | ETSU +370 APSU -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +1 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -9.7 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -6.4 (+5.4) | 136.0 (-3.0) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -7.5 (+6.5) | 133.1 (-0.1) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | APSU 76 – 75 ETSU |
| Nov 30, 2024 | ETSU 79 – 57 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-12 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#72) | 2.0 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#65) | 1.06 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#77) | 1.45 (#16) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 29.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 14.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.22 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 32.4% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 32.4% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 81.8% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.7% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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