Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -20.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | MD -4500 MSM +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +18 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MD -19.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -8.1 (+9.9) | 131.9 (+8.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -12.2 (+5.8) | 139.1 (+0.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -13.3 (+4.7) | 138.0 (+2.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -14.6 (+3.4) | 134.8 (+5.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2025 | MD 95 – 90 MSM |
| Nov 9, 2024 | MD 86 – 52 MSM |
| Nov 8, 2023 | MD 68 – 53 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 12-11 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 62.2 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#39) | 1.1 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#29) | 0.33 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#24) | 0.22 (#111) |
| RPI | 1.000 (#1) | 0.521 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.1% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 47.4% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 64.5% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.7% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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