Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -120 DAV +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +1 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -5.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-27.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -2.1 (+3.1) | 148.5 (-23.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -2.7 (+3.7) | 140.7 (-15.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -0.3 (+1.3) | 146.2 (-21.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -2.3 (+3.3) | 150.1 (-25.1) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2024 | DAV 69 – 58 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 13-9 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 7-4 |
| Home | 8-3 | 7-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-2 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 64.8 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#141) | 4.6 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#189) | -0.19 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#195) | 0.15 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#142) | 0.469 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 54.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 61.9% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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