Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
| Money | MEM -7000 ARST +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +29 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -17.1 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -9.4 (+19.6) | 136.7 (+0.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -8.0 (+21.0) | 133.7 (+3.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -10.5 (+18.5) | 138.7 (-1.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -10.6 (+18.4) | 135.9 (+1.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2024 | ARST 85 – 72 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#92) | -3.5 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#135) | -1.24 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#107) | -1.96 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#119) | 0.062 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 15.5% |
| FT Rate | 14.2% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.2% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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