Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | UAB -1300 TROY +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +22 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -26.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -22.7 (-0.7) | 136.8 (-4.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -18.5 (+3.5) | 133.5 (-1.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -19.4 (+2.6) | 135.9 (-3.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -22.1 (-0.1) | 132.3 (-0.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | TROY 86 – 85 UAB |
Game Analysis
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