Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | MIA +200 SMU -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +43 | 191 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -7.4 (-35.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.1 (+24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -13.5 (-29.5) | 156.8 (+34.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -7.8 (-35.2) | 156.8 (+34.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -9.1 (-33.9) | 158.5 (+32.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -9.7 (-33.3) | 157.9 (+33.1) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | MIA 77 – 69 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 13-7 |
| Home | 7-10 | 13-6 |
| Away | 0-10 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#156) | 11.8 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#312) | 2.07 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#287) | 2.60 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#283) | 0.580 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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