Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | AMER +100 HARV -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +12 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -9.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -3.7 (+8.3) | 137.7 (-15.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -3.2 (+8.8) | 135.3 (-13.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -3.7 (+8.3) | 132.1 (-10.1) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2023 | HARV 80 – 75 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 12-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#155) | 4.0 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#215) | 0.11 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#214) | 0.15 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#76) | 0.438 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.4% | 55.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 64.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 5.5% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.0% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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