Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -275 CAL +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +3 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -7.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -5.4 (-8.4) | 141.9 (-14.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -6.1 (-9.1) | 139.6 (-12.6) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -5.2 (-8.2) | 140.7 (-13.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -5.5 (-8.5) | 141.8 (-14.8) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2025 | CAL 74 – 62 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 0-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#92) | 2.2 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#149) | 0.11 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#117) | 0.27 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#188) | 0.498 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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