Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -195 MICH +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +27 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -1.6 (+25.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -4.3 (+22.7) | 144.0 (+11.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -5.5 (+21.5) | 144.4 (+10.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -4.0 (+23.0) | 147.4 (+7.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -3.5 (+23.5) | 148.2 (+6.8) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | PUR 80 – 72 MICH |
| Feb 17, 2026 | MICH 91 – 80 PUR |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MICH 86 – 68 PUR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MICH 75 – 73 PUR |
| Feb 25, 2024 | PUR 84 – 76 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 17.9 (#16) | 19.7 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#15) | 2.65 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.27 (#13) | 3.96 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.665 (#6) | 0.642 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 58.9% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.