Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -175 MSST +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +13 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -3.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -2.9 (+10.1) | 134.7 (+6.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -3.5 (+9.5) | 135.4 (+5.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -3.4 (+9.6) | 135.7 (+5.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -3.3 (+9.7) | 134.2 (+6.8) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | MSST 71 – 66 MEM |
| Dec 21, 2024 | MSST 79 – 66 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-3 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#34) | 8.3 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#41) | 1.37 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#33) | 1.84 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#35) | 0.538 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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