Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
| Money | BAY -188 HOU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +19 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -1.5 (+17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -2.3 (+16.7) | 138.2 (-1.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -1.0 (+18.0) | 134.5 (+2.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -2.3 (+16.7) | 139.1 (-2.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -2.4 (+16.6) | 139.4 (-2.4) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | HOU 77 – 64 BAY |
| Jan 10, 2026 | HOU 77 – 55 BAY |
| Mar 9, 2025 | HOU 65 – 61 BAY |
| Feb 11, 2025 | HOU 76 – 65 BAY |
| Feb 24, 2024 | HOU 82 – 76 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-2 | 28-4 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 14-3 |
| Home | 11-0 | 15-0 |
| Away | 7-1 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.9 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 58.6 |
| Massey | 21.8 (#2) | 20.3 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.43 (#2) | 3.36 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.30 (#2) | 4.25 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#2) | 0.644 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 41.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 39.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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