Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ +136 UK -162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +6 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -6.1 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -4.9 (-1.1) | 148.9 (+1.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -4.1 (-1.9) | 148.9 (+1.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -4.6 (-1.4) | 148.7 (+1.3) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -4.7 (-1.3) | 150.4 (-0.4) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MIZ 73 – 68 UK |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UK 91 – 83 MIZ |
| Jan 10, 2024 | UK 90 – 77 MIZ |
| Dec 29, 2022 | MIZ 89 – 75 UK |
| Dec 30, 2021 | UK 83 – 56 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#53) | 16.9 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#41) | 2.52 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#48) | 3.33 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#64) | 0.578 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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