Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -1650 UCF +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +22 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -15.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -15.1 (+6.9) | 155.9 (-15.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -11.7 (+10.3) | 157.0 (-17.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -14.3 (+7.7) | 155.9 (-15.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -14.2 (+7.8) | 154.6 (-14.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | ARIZ 84 – 77 UCF |
| Jan 12, 2025 | ARIZ 88 – 80 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-3 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-5 |
| Away | 9-1 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 11-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.2 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 26.4 (#3) | 10.7 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.07 (#3) | 2.50 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.32 (#3) | 3.14 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.670 (#3) | 0.587 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 38.4% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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