Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -148 MASS +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +10 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -2.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -2.8 (+7.2) | 155.5 (-11.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -2.1 (+7.9) | 152.7 (-8.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -3.2 (+6.8) | 154.5 (-10.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -3.0 (+7.0) | 155.2 (-11.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MASS 84 – 82 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 5-9 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#139) | -1.0 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#141) | -0.18 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#135) | -0.21 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#92) | 0.495 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 33.1% |
Game Analysis
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