Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | BRAD +130 DAY -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +14 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -0.8 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -0.1 (-13.9) | 142.6 (+3.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -0.4 (-13.6) | 142.3 (+3.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -0.2 (-14.2) | 143.5 (+2.5) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -0.5 (-13.5) | 145.5 (+0.5) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#112) | 7.6 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#122) | 1.56 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#125) | 1.92 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#111) | 0.569 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 35.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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