Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE -355 ILST +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +3 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | WAKE -6.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -7.5 (-10.5) | 143.6 (+9.4) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -6.6 (-9.6) | 142.0 (+11.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -7.1 (-10.1) | 142.0 (+11.0) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -6.6 (-9.6) | 144.5 (+8.5) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#62) | 6.4 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#69) | 0.59 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#68) | 0.68 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#75) | 0.535 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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