Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -1350 SEA +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +6 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -13.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+30.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -14.6 (-8.6) | 143.2 (+32.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -12.1 (-6.1) | 139.5 (+36.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -11.8 (-5.8) | 139.4 (+36.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -12.2 (-6.2) | 142.9 (+33.1) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#37) | 3.4 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#44) | 0.52 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#43) | 0.88 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#42) | 0.514 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.9% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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