Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | UNM -625 JOES +455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +15 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -12.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -11.4 (+3.6) | 148.3 (+4.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -12.1 (+2.9) | 146.3 (+6.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -12.5 (+2.5) | 147.4 (+5.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -13.6 (+1.4) | 148.5 (+4.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 17-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#45) | 3.1 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#51) | 1.26 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#52) | 1.28 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#51) | 0.555 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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