Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MINN +145 BAY -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +19 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -4.3 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-29.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -3.3 (-15.7) | 139.3 (-24.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -3.2 (-15.8) | 144.6 (-29.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -2.7 (-16.3) | 145.0 (-30.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -3.2 (-15.8) | 141.5 (-26.5) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#75) | 12.4 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#86) | 1.66 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#83) | 2.16 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#160) | 0.526 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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