Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -355 ILST +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +22 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -6.7 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -6.6 (+15.4) | 142.3 (+11.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -6.7 (+15.3) | 142.6 (+11.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -6.4 (+15.6) | 143.0 (+11.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -6.2 (+15.8) | 143.9 (+10.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#41) | 7.1 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#43) | 0.89 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#39) | 0.97 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#40) | 0.550 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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