Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -2000 SHSU +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +37 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | SHSU -1.6 (+38.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -1.5 (+35.5) | 150.8 (+20.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -4.8 (+32.2) | 147.0 (+24.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -1.6 (+35.4) | 146.7 (+24.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -1.7 (+38.7) | 152.5 (+18.5) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#284) | 7.3 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#55) | 1.22 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#47) | 1.81 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.844 (#13) | 0.613 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 22.2% | 47.1% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 58.6% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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