Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | CAL -450 MIA +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +4 | 192 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -9.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.4 (+30.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -9.5 (-5.5) | 152.3 (+39.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -8.5 (-4.5) | 148.1 (+43.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -8.7 (-4.7) | 152.9 (+39.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -8.9 (-4.9) | 154.3 (+37.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | CAL 86 – 85 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 3-17 |
| Home | 11-6 | 7-10 |
| Away | 2-11 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#110) | -2.5 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#108) | -1.74 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#103) | -1.79 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#141) | 0.440 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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