Betting Lines
| Spread | LIU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | MERC +120 LIU -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +5 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | LIU -1.4 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (+36.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -2.0 (+7.0) | 130.1 (+34.9) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIU -1.0 (+6.0) | 126.4 (+38.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIU -2.1 (+7.1) | 129.8 (+35.2) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIU -1.7 (+6.7) | 129.5 (+35.5) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | LIU 79 – 70 MERC |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MERC 91 – 83 LIU |
| Jan 9, 2026 | LIU 60 – 58 MERC |
| Jan 20, 2025 | LIU 72 – 63 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 12-4 |
| Home | 11-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-14 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 65.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -13.0 (#345) | -8.3 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#316) | -1.32 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#320) | -1.75 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#311) | 0.436 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 25.5 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 34.7% |
Game Analysis
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