Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | KU -1200 UCF +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +4 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | KU -15.1 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -12.1 (-8.1) | 153.4 (+24.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -12.8 (-8.8) | 156.7 (+21.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -11.9 (-7.9) | 153.1 (+24.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -11.8 (-7.8) | 151.2 (+26.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | UCF 81 – 75 KU |
| Mar 13, 2025 | KU 98 – 94 UCF |
| Jan 5, 2025 | KU 99 – 48 UCF |
| Jan 11, 2024 | UCF 65 – 60 KU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 80.4 |
| Massey | 19.8 (#9) | 8.0 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#18) | 2.35 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.08 (#16) | 2.87 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.654 (#7) | 0.607 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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