Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -2500 AMCC +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +19 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -3.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.2 (+14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -4.7 (+14.3) | 151.0 (+30.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -4.6 (+14.4) | 152.6 (+28.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -4.6 (+14.4) | 148.4 (+32.6) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#124) | -1.1 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#19) | -0.33 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#12) | -0.44 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#70) | 0.562 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.5% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 12.4% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 19.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 10.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 66.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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