Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | PFW -240 WRST +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +23 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -6.6 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -5.8 (+17.2) | 159.8 (-8.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -5.4 (+17.6) | 156.4 (-5.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -4.9 (+18.1) | 156.2 (-5.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -5.4 (+17.6) | 157.2 (-6.2) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | WRST 74 – 70 PFW |
| Feb 8, 2026 | WRST 73 – 68 PFW |
| Jan 16, 2025 | PFW 120 – 113 WRST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | PFW 79 – 77 WRST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WRST 106 – 98 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#131) | -1.5 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#142) | -0.32 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#131) | -0.26 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#129) | 0.498 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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