Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -1200 AKR +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +19 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -5.7 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -7.0 (+12.0) | 147.9 (+7.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -12.2 (+6.8) | 150.1 (+4.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -9.3 (+9.7) | 149.1 (+5.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 17-1 |
| Home | 16-1 | 16-0 |
| Away | 9-1 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.8 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#194) | 4.3 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#102) | -0.60 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#112) | -0.75 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#125) | 0.250 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 35.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 49.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 19.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 42.2% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 43.4% | 11.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 4.1% |
Game Analysis
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